We’re in a pivotal moment of the athletics calendar: football’s roster management is in full swing, basketball is heating up in SEC play, and looming changes in college sports are always in the conversation. It’s the perfect time for an Alabama mailbag, and today we focus on a question that demands its own spotlight.
The question comes from Lyle B., who asked, “How would you rate the likelihood of each candidate’s chances of being the starter in the first game of the season?”
The candidates in the running for the starting quarterback job are Ty Simpson, Austin Mack, and Keelon Russell. Here’s a breakdown of each, along with their estimated chances of winning the job:
Ty Simpson: 60 Percent
Simpson, now a fourth-year junior, is the most experienced candidate and has the most to gain, as he’s entering a bigger leadership role as the longest-tenured offensive player alongside running back Jam Miller. The Simpson vs. Milroe debate has been polarizing, with Milroe’s shortcomings contrasted by the fact that two different coaching staffs picked him to start. The key question for Simpson is what he needs to do to finally secure the starting spot in 2025.
Though his game reps have been limited, Simpson has shown flashes of promise. His biggest hurdle is pairing his physical tools with the mental aspect of the game. Simpson has already faced stiff competition, battling Jalen Milroe and Tyler Buchner in 2023. After entering fall camp as the third-stringer, Simpson saw action in the South Florida game when Buchner struggled, going 5-of-9 for 73 yards with a rushing touchdown. Despite taking five sacks, he secured the win and cemented himself as the No. 2 QB.
Simpson has reflected on his past struggles, acknowledging his immaturity at the time. “I was immature back then,” Simpson told UA CTSN in November. “I was more worried about how people saw me and how I wanted to play the game. I should’ve relaxed and played free and not cared about what other people think.”
Through his growth, Simpson has learned to stay engaged and play more freely. He believes that he’s now on track to win the starting role if he continues to progress. “During my first two years I felt not robotic, but I didn’t play as free… but at the end of the day, it’s a game,” he said.
Austin Mack: 20 Percent
Mack is the wild card in this quarterback battle. With a strong relationship with Kalen DeBoer, who recruited him as a high school prospect, Mack has the potential to surprise. DeBoer was instrumental in Mack’s decision to reclassify to the 2023 class, where he spent time learning under Michael Penix Jr. at Washington. Mack, a former top-75 recruit, had an impressive high school career, throwing for 3,498 yards and 40 touchdowns as a junior.
Now, after spending time behind Milroe and learning from Penix, Mack could be primed for a breakout year. Though Mack’s reps have been limited, he has earned respect within the program. “He’s one of the hardest workers on the team,” said DeBoer, noting that Mack is constantly working, even outside of scheduled practices.
Mack’s size, standing at 6-foot-6 and weighing in at 26 pounds more than when he first arrived, gives him an edge physically. However, he would need a standout spring to have a chance at unseating Simpson, though his potential is undeniable.
If there was a high school football video game, Keelon Russell would be a 99 overall.
Absolutely sensational throw to fellow 5⭐️ Dakorien Moore for this 72-yard TD before the half.
➡️ https://t.co/LNqB4bvfPK#RollTide pic.twitter.com/JERDryMSDp
— Joseph Hastings III (@JosephAHastings) October 26, 2024
Keelon Russell: 20 Percent
Russell, a true freshman, is regarded as the future of Alabama’s quarterback room. As a highly decorated high school prospect, Russell was a three-star recruit who caught the attention of both DeBoer and offensive coordinator Nick Sheridan. His accolades are impressive: he’s a two-time state champion, with over 10,000 total yards and 125 touchdowns to his name, along with being named the Maxwell National Player of the Year and Gatorade National Player of the Year.
The relationship with DeBoer and Sheridan played a significant role in his recruitment. “They’re going to help you adjust to the offense so anything that fits you, we’re gonna do,” Russell said about the coaching staff’s approach. Despite his impressive high school career, he still faces challenges, including adjusting to the higher level of competition and adding weight to his 175-pound frame.
Russell’s spring performance will be crucial. If he can impress enough in practice, particularly against the second and third teams, he could earn a more significant opportunity in the fall.
This quarterback battle at Alabama is shaping up to be one of the most high-profile in college football. Ty Simpson holds the lead for now, but if he’s dethroned, it will likely be due to one of the younger quarterbacks—Mack or Russell—doing something special. Keep an eye on this intense competition as spring ball unfolds.
