This week, the Philadelphia Eagles made a major move by signing Saquon Barkley to a deal making him the highest-paid running back in the NFL. He also became the first running back in NFL history to surpass the $20 million annual salary mark.
For Detroit Lions fans, this sparked immediate speculation that Jahmyr Gibbs could be next in line for a massive payday. Gibbs, who will be up for an extension after the 2025 season, is expected to land a significant contract, but the big question is: just how much will it be?
We reached out to cap expert Joshua Queipo to help us project what Gibbs’ deal could look like. Here’s what he had to say:
“If Gibbs comes close to matching his 2024 production in 2025, his two-year numbers would actually surpass Saquon’s in several key areas: rushing touchdowns, receptions, receiving yards, total yards, total touchdowns, explosive runs, and missed tackles forced. He’d also be nearly equal to Barkley in rushing yards.”
This would give Gibbs a strong case to surpass Barkley’s deal. However, Queipo noted that Gibbs, being more of a versatile weapon with significant value in the passing game, is likely to be compared to Christian McCaffrey’s 2020 contract, adjusted for salary cap inflation.
“We wouldn’t compare him to Saquon’s deal, as that was for an older running back on his third contract trying to secure guaranteed money. Detroit will want Gibbs locked into a longer-term deal, likely four years. McCaffrey received $16 million per year in 2020 on a $198.2 million cap. With the cap projected to rise to $300 million next year, McCaffrey’s deal would translate to around $24 million. While that’s a significant jump, it’s probably closer to an 8% increase rather than a 17% leap.”
With all of this in mind, Queipo projects Gibbs’ extension to be a four-year deal worth $89 million, averaging $22.25 million annually. He anticipates $40-45 million of that being guaranteed.
This would likely make Gibbs the highest-paid running back in the NFL. However, with contracts for Aidan Hutchinson, Jameson Williams, and Kerby Joseph also on the horizon, the Lions could face a tough challenge in retaining everyone.
The challenge for the Lions is clear: Drafting well has its consequences. After the 2023 NFL Draft, Detroit landed Gibbs, Brian Branch, Jack Campbell, and Sam LaPorta, all of whom will soon command hefty deals. It’s possible one of them may be left behind when the time comes to make tough roster decisions.
Ultimately, this is the reality of building a competitive team. While the salary cap might seem flexible at times, it inevitably catches up with you, and the Lions may have to make some difficult moves to free up space. While they may find a way to manage, it will likely be a very tough challenge ahead.
