As the Detroit Lions and Washington Commanders prepare for their divisional round matchup this Saturday, one thing is certain: don’t expect many punts or field goals.
Both teams are known for their aggressive approach on fourth downs, and the boldness of their head coaches, Dan Campbell of the Lions and Dan Quinn of the Commanders, is likely to play a major role in determining who advances to the NFC Championship game.
Throughout the regular season, Detroit and Washington were among the most daring teams on fourth downs, ranking second and third, respectively, in a key metric developed by The Athletic’s Austin Mock. The Commanders, in particular, have relied heavily on their fourth-down aggressiveness to get to this point. In their playoff opener against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Washington went for it five times on fourth down, converting three attempts, including a crucial fourth-and-2 in the fourth quarter for a go-ahead touchdown.
“We were going to be bold but not reckless,” said Dan Quinn, reflecting on his team’s strategy. Even after failing on their first fourth-down attempt of the game, Quinn stuck with the plan, embodying the mentality that defined his team throughout the season. “When you get stopped early, you just have to stay the course… knowing this is going to be a game that’s going to go all the way down to the end.”
Washington’s success on fourth downs helped them finish first in the NFL in conversion percentage (87%), setting a new record for the most successful conversions by a team with over 10 attempts.
While Quinn has embraced a more aggressive fourth-down strategy, much of the credit for this trend goes to Dan Campbell of Detroit. Since taking over the Lions in 2021, Campbell has consistently led the NFL in fourth-down attempts. His boldness first surfaced during his inaugural season when Detroit finished with a dismal 3-13-1 record, yet Campbell’s philosophy of risk-taking remained unwavering.
His unapologetic stance on fourth-down decisions has drawn mixed reactions, yet it’s clear that Campbell has paved the way for other coaches, like Quinn, to adopt a similar mindset.
One of Campbell’s most memorable moments came during last year’s NFC Championship game against the San Francisco 49ers. Despite leading by 17 points at one point, Detroit fell short 34-31. Campbell’s decision to go for it on fourth down twice, even while in field goal range, was controversial—both attempts failed. However, Campbell stood by his choices. “I don’t regret those decisions,” he said after the loss.
Campbell once again demonstrated his boldness this season in a critical game against the Green Bay Packers. With the game tied and 43 seconds left, the Lions faced a fourth-and-1 on the Packers’ 21-yard line. A field goal would have given Detroit a narrow lead, but Campbell opted to go for it. Even after quarterback Jared Goff stumbled on the handoff, the Lions managed to convert the yard and run down the clock, setting up a game-winning field goal.
“You’re taking a high level of risk. There is risk with it,” Campbell acknowledged after the victory. “But I felt like with our guys, it wouldn’t be as big of a risk as it may appear to be.”
As the two teams face off this Saturday, it’s clear that neither coach will shy away from their aggressive tactics. For Detroit under Campbell, this is simply their way of playing football. And given Washington’s success on fourth downs, it’s unlikely they’ll abandon their strategy either.
So, don’t be surprised if, late in the game, either coach opts to go for it on a critical fourth-and-short. Win or lose, both Campbell and Quinn are unlikely to second-guess their decisions.
