The Detroit Lions’ pursuit of the NFC North title and the No. 1 playoff seed faced a setback with last week’s loss to the Buffalo Bills. However, the team still controls its destiny as it enters the final three games of the season. With the Minnesota Vikings and Philadelphia Eagles both performing strongly, the Lions could use some help, particularly after injuries sidelined key defensive players (defensive tackle Alim McNeill, knee; cornerback Carlton Davis III, jaw) for the rest of the season.
Heading into the weekend, the Lions—who hold the tiebreaker over the Eagles and Vikings—have a 78% chance to win the NFC North and a 44% chance to secure the No. 1 seed, according to the New York Times playoff simulator.
While the Green Bay Packers are technically still in the NFC North race, their chances are slim. The Packers would need to win their final three games while the Lions and Vikings must both lose their next two games before tying in the season finale. Given this, the focus here will be on the two teams with records equal to the Lions (Minnesota and Philadelphia), as Green Bay has less than a 1% chance of winning the division.
All odds are from the NYT playoff simulator and are independent of each other.
Detroit Lions (12-2) at Chicago Bears (4-10)
- Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. Sunday, Soldier Field, Chicago (FOX)
- Rooting Interest: Lions
- With a Lions win: Lions’ odds to earn No. 1 seed increase to 54%; Lions’ odds to win NFC North increase to 83%
- With a Bears win: Lions’ odds to earn No. 1 seed decrease to 17%; Lions’ odds to win NFC North decrease to 60%
The Bears are currently on an eight-game losing streak, while the Lions are looking to rebound after their 11-game winning streak was snapped by the Bills. This game presents a prime opportunity for the Lions to get back on track, as they have not lost back-to-back games since Weeks 7 and 8 of the 2022 season. A win would also give Detroit a strong division lead, especially if the Seattle Seahawks can pull off an upset against the Vikings later in the day.
Philadelphia Eagles (12-2) at Washington Commanders (9-5)
- Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. Sunday, FedExField, Landover, Maryland
- Rooting Interest: Commanders
- With an Eagles win: Lions’ odds to earn No. 1 seed decrease to 32%
- With a Commanders win: Lions’ odds to earn No. 1 seed increase to 67%
The Eagles come into this game riding a 10-game winning streak and are closely pursuing the Lions for the No. 1 seed. They hold a 41% chance of securing a first-round bye. On the other hand, the Commanders, led by rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, have an 88% chance of making the playoffs and will be highly motivated to avenge their November loss to Philadelphia. A Commanders win would significantly boost Detroit’s chances for the No. 1 seed.
Minnesota Vikings (12-2) at Seattle Seahawks (8-6)
- Kickoff: 4:05 p.m. Sunday, Lumen Field, Seattle (FOX)
- Rooting Interest: Seahawks
- With a Vikings win: Lions’ odds to earn No. 1 seed decrease to 44%; Lions’ odds to win NFC North decrease to 69%
- With a Seahawks win: Lions’ odds to earn No. 1 seed increase to 48%; Lions’ odds to win NFC North increase to 89%
Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith is expected to play, which is a significant boost for the Lions, who would benefit from a Seattle victory. A Seahawks win would swing the odds 20 percentage points in favor of Detroit, increasing their chances of clinching the NFC North. If the Lions win their next two games against Chicago and San Francisco, and the Vikings lose one of their next two, Detroit could clinch the division before the final Week 18 showdown.
Ultimately, the New York Times playoff simulator appears to be more focused on the Eagles as a threat to the No. 1 seed. The difference in Detroit’s odds of securing the top spot hinges more on the Eagles’ performance than the Vikings’, with only a 4% swing in Detroit’s favor based on the Vikings’ result.
