Dan Campbell’s Strong Fourth Down Decisions Boost His Case for Coach of the Year
As voters cast their ballots for the NFL’s 2024 Coach of the Year, I’d like to offer one last piece of evidence supporting Detroit Lions head coach Dan Campbell. Much has been discussed regarding Campbell’s game management, particularly his tendency to go for it on fourth down—often in situations that some deem unconventional. I use unconventional because terms like “risky,” “bold,” or even “reckless” are frequently misapplied to his approach.
However, an analytical model indicates that Campbell’s aggressive fourth-down decisions are actually more sound and safer than those of many other NFL teams. Ben Baldwin’s widely-followed Fourth Down Bot utilizes an analytical framework to assess whether each fourth down decision optimizes a team’s win probability, factoring in variables like down, distance, score, and remaining time. Baldwin tracks every team’s fourth down choices, and unsurprisingly, the Detroit Lions have consistently made the highest percentage of analytically-backed decisions over the past two seasons, particularly in 2024:
My final case for Dan Campbell as coach of the year (via @benbbaldwin) pic.twitter.com/rRDh5Xbpkl
— Jeremy Reisman (@DetroitOnLion) January 7, 2025
whoops, that was 2023-24 combined.
Nevertheless, the data is basically the same. pic.twitter.com/xtlbhfLzIg
— Jeremy Reisman (@DetroitOnLion) January 7, 2025
This is significant because many fans and analysts mistakenly equate Campbell’s aggression with recklessness or irresponsibility. In fact, Hall of Fame coach Jimmy Johnson criticized Campbell just last week on FOX’s pregame show, claiming that his strategies might work against weaker regular-season teams but won’t be effective in the playoffs. After Detroit’s loss in last year’s NFC Championship game, Campbell faced heavy criticism for his fourth-down aggressiveness, which resulted in two failed conversions against the San Francisco 49ers.
However, it’s important to consider the bigger picture of what Campbell is doing. Fourth-down failures are inevitable—that’s just part of the process. But when it comes to playing the odds, Campbell has the numbers on his side more often than not. To see the benefit of his decisions, one only has to look at Sunday night’s game against the Vikings. While Detroit did fail one fourth down conversion, giving Minnesota favorable field position, they successfully converted the other two, turning potential field goals into touchdowns. This was a significant net gain for the Lions, and a key reason they will spend the Wild Card round of the playoffs at home, while the Vikings—who rank 18th in “correct” fourth down decision-making—will head to Los Angeles to face the Rams.
