Here’s our analysis and prediction for the Week 9 matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and the Atlanta Falcons.
The Cowboys will head to Atlanta to face the Falcons this week. Below is our early prediction for the game, with all odds sourced from DraftKings Sportsbook as of October 28, 2024. Statistics are provided by TruMedia unless otherwise noted.
For a complete list of our picks and predictions, check out our Early Week 9 Picks and Predictions.
Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons (-2.5, 49)
During a brief moment in their Sunday Night Football game, it seemed the Cowboys’ bye week had provided a much-needed reset. However, they were ultimately overwhelmed by the 49ers in the third quarter, conceding 21 unanswered points that shifted the game’s momentum.
Currently, the Cowboys sit at 3-4 and rank 25th in our PR+ standings.
The Falcons secured a win on Sunday, placing them in a strong position within the NFC South, bolstered by two victories over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this season. However, their performance has been anything but convincing, as they rank 20th in PR+, featuring a 10th-ranked offense and a 27th-ranked defense.
On a positive note for Atlanta, the Cowboys’ defense is equally poor and their offense is performing worse. This weekend, the Falcons should be able to extend their lead over the Buccaneers, who are set to face the Kansas City Chiefs.
The matchup between the Cowboys and Falcons has the potential to be high-scoring due to the weaknesses in both defenses. I expect the Falcons to cover the spread and for the total points to exceed the over/under, although I’m leaning more towards the total.
Prediction: Falcons 30, Cowboys 24
Pick: Falcons -2.5 and Over 49
Cowboys at Falcons Game Insights
Dallas Cowboys
Team: While the on-field performance is faltering, the Cowboys have a history of strong second halves, having achieved four-game win streaks in each of the past three seasons during this period.
QB: Dak Prescott has thrown interceptions in three consecutive games, marking a franchise milestone as only the third time in their history that a quarterback has done this for three straight games. It has only happened in four consecutive games twice before (Danny White in 1983 and Craig Morton in 1972).
Offense: In the first four weeks, Dallas allowed pressure on 25.8% of plays, but that figure has jumped to 37.3% in the last three games.
Defense: The Cowboys have a record of 2-3 in their last five games, having allowed a total of 105 points (35 points per game) against teams likely heading to the playoffs. They face more playoff contenders in the upcoming weeks (Falcons, Eagles, Texans, Commanders).
Fantasy: Jake Ferguson has recorded zero air yards in Week 8 despite receiving eight targets and has been under 30 air yards for four consecutive games. He remains a valuable asset in PPR leagues, though his scoring potential is low (no touchdowns this season, with nine catches for 34 yards in the last two games).
Betting: The Cowboys have successfully covered the spread in their last five dome games on the road, and they’ve also hit the under in their last three outings.
Atlanta Falcons
Team: Following their Week 8 win, the Falcons are now 3-0 after losses this season, winning those games by an average of five points.
QB: Kirk Cousins’ 62.4% quick pass rate is the highest it has been since his first season with the Vikings in 2018.
Offense: Atlanta converted 3 of 8 third-and-long situations (seven or more yards) in Week 5 against the Buccaneers; however, they have struggled since, going just 2 for 15 in those scenarios.
Defense: The Falcons boast the lowest sack rate in the NFL at 2.2%, significantly trailing Carolina, which is at 3.6%. Over the past decade, only two teams have recorded sub-3% sack rates (the 2018 Raiders and the 2020 Titans).
Fantasy: While it’s not an overreaction, Drake London recorded his lowest average depth of target (aDOT) this season at 6.7 yards, coupled with a second-lowest target share (18.8%). Typically, shorter routes lead to higher volume, so this is worth monitoring.
Betting: The Falcons have struggled at home this season, posting a 1-4 record against the spread, with their sole cover being a fortunate comeback win over the Bucs in Week 5 as a 2.5-point favorite.
