Some of the most challenging decisions in the NFL draft arise when the eye test doesn’t align with the numbers. A player may look NFL-ready based on his physical attributes, but lack the statistics to match his impressive measurables.
“I think you value upside because you want growth, but we don’t have a farm system,” Miami Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel explained. “You don’t have the luxury of redshirting them in the National Football League.”
Shemar Stewart, ranked No. 25 on ESPN analyst Mel Kiper Jr.’s Big Board, is a key figure in this ongoing debate. He is part of a deep group of edge rushers in the 2025 draft class, a position that often highlights the “potential vs. production” dilemma.
Stewart is the highest-rated player in this year’s balance of future NFL potential versus on-field production. His evaluation is often summarized by the number “4.5”—representing his total college sacks, with 1.5 in each of his three seasons.
“Sometimes the stats don’t tell the whole story,” Stewart noted at the combine. “It’s all about the film. And when you look at the film, you can really see what’s going on for the most part.”
Along with Mykel Williams (Georgia) and Landon Jackson (Arkansas), Stewart exemplifies the ongoing challenge for NFL scouts and executives: reconciling significant upside with limited production in Round 1. We spoke to individuals across the league about how decision-makers balance the potential of high-upside players against the lack of production, and why the traits are often too tempting to overlook—even if it means betting their futures on that potential.
STEWART, 21, is a textbook example of a prospect. At the combine, he measured 6-foot-5 and weighed 267 pounds. He clocked a 40-yard dash time of 4.59 seconds, outperforming three running backs, five wide receivers, and all 14 tight ends present. He also had a 40-inch vertical leap, tied for fourth among all combine participants, and a broad jump of 10-foot-11, tied for seventh.
“[That type of performance] will always get your attention,” said an AFC scout. “There are not many people on the planet who can do that.”
However, this raises a major question: How could someone so physically gifted—so big, strong, fast, and quick—have only 4.5 sacks and 11.5 tackles for loss over 37 college games? To put that into perspective, Penn State’s Abdul Carter—widely regarded as the top prospect in this draft class—had 12 sacks and 23.5 tackles for loss in just 16 games last season. Yet, Stewart’s impressive analytical metrics draw scouts back in. Despite his modest production, he recorded an average time to first pressure of 2.43 seconds last season, the best in the FBS (Carter’s was 2.46 seconds).
“As a coach, if you think you’re worth a s— at all, you’re going to watch a guy with all the traits and say, ‘I can get [the sacks] out of him, I can get him to play,'” said a former NFL defensive line coach. “Those are the pound-the-table guys. You don’t want plateau players, guys who are as good as they’re going to be. You want potential.”
Stewart himself has been asked about his statistical output by coaches, scouts, and executives. He pointed to Texas A&M’s defensive depth and the tendency of opposing quarterbacks to get rid of the ball quickly to avoid pressure. Despite this, the Aggies’ defense was ranked 22nd in the FBS for pressure rate (40.3%), despite having one of the lowest blitz rates in the league (19.3%, ranked 115th).
“I wasn’t a sack-chasing warrior,” Stewart said. “I just wanted to become the best player for my team. And sometimes the stats don’t show that. Sometimes, I have to play dead to rights, and sometimes I just couldn’t finish or just couldn’t get there in time.”
Stewart isn’t alone in facing such questions. Georgia’s Williams, ranked No. 22 overall by Kiper, registered 14 sacks over three seasons for the Bulldogs, including just five in 2024. Williams revealed to teams that he was “less than 60%” at times last season due to an ankle injury sustained in Week 1.
Arkansas’ Jackson also fits this mold. Though he had 16 sacks over three seasons, the 6-foot-6, 264-pound defender impressed so much in combine drills that several scouts revisited his game film. They acknowledged Jackson’s effectiveness in run defense, though they hadn’t seen the same explosiveness in his pass rush on tape.
At the combine, Williams compared himself to another Georgia edge rusher who sparked a statistical debate—Travon Walker, selected No. 1 overall in the 2022 draft. Walker had been the center of a similar “potential vs. production” discussion leading up to that draft.
“Travon was special because of how big he was and how fast he could move,” Williams noted. “He’s very versatile, like myself. So that’s where I think the comparisons come from, but that’s what made him special. What he could do with his size.”
WALKER DIDN’T CHECK all the boxes as the 2022 draft approached. He recorded just 9.5 sacks and 11 tackles for loss over three college seasons, but his rare moments of brilliance intrigued scouts. One such moment was his chase of Alabama’s wide receiver Agiye Hall, running him down 24 yards during the 2021 national championship game.
Leading up to the draft, Walker impressed with an extraordinary combine performance, running a 40-yard dash in 4.51 seconds, the fastest for all defensive linemen and second among edge rushers. His vertical jump of 35½ inches was better than all but two defensive linemen.
“I liked him,” an AFC scout said. “But you find yourself answering for, ‘How’d he only have one sack as a [sophomore]? How can a guy that talented have [seven] sacks in his last two years?'”
Coaches and scouts argue that sacks are not the sole indicator of a pass rusher’s value. However, players whose abilities are undeniable but whose results don’t reflect that often leave evaluators scratching their heads.
“In a meeting you’re always going to say, ‘Let’s look beyond these numbers and get more data,’ or ‘Let’s dive into this more, look at the scheme, how he was coached, what he was asked to do, the makeup, all of it,'” said an NFC general manager. “The guys with both traits and numbers, those are the easy calls. … A player with all the traits and no touchdowns, interceptions or sacks or whatever, those are tough ‘Whys?'”
Walker eventually became the No. 1 pick, with the Jacksonville Jaguars selecting him over Michigan’s Aidan Hutchinson, who was seen as the safer pick due to his 14 sacks in 2021. Hutchinson went No. 2 to the Detroit Lions. Early returns favored Hutchinson—Walker transitioned from defensive line to outside linebacker in his rookie year, finishing with just 3.5 sacks over 788 snaps, while Hutchinson had 9.5 sacks and placed second in Defensive Rookie of the Year voting. However, Walker rewarded Jacksonville’s patience with 10 sacks in 2023 and 10.5 last season.
“It’s always, when you’re on the clock, a choice about if, and when, you take traits and what you think the player has inside to be what you think he should be,” the NFC general manager added.
SOMETIMES IT DOESN’T WORK. For every Walker and Odafe Oweh—who was drafted in 2021 despite zero sacks in his final college season but went on to record 10 for the Ravens in 2024—there are players like Vernon Gholston, who failed to live up to his elite traits after being drafted by the Jets with the sixth pick in 2008.
However, elite pass rushers are among the quickest to adapt to the NFL, which is why some evaluators tend to lean more on potential.
“You just think, a tweak here with his hands, fix his stance, add some strength, they’ll adapt fast,” the former defensive line coach said. “You want those guys that get to the quarterback. … If they’ve got the traits, you can take a chance. You’ll get it right more than some other positions.”
Stewart hopes that evaluators consider the bigger picture and recognize all the contributions he made to Texas A&M’s defense—and would bring to his new NFL team.
“[Box score] production is a little overrated,” Stewart concluded.
